Nate Silver is out with an analysis of Sarah Palin primary math, should she run in 2012, and he says Florida probably wouldn’t be in her “win” column.
I can’t say I’m shocked really because when she ran in 2008 she was a big asset when it came to swing voters in Florida, in that she swung them to the left. They found her frightening and offensive. Judging from her last few public appearances and speaking engagements, that probably hasn’t changed. I would even go so far as to say that local public opinion of her is probably even much worse these days.
Palin is probably fortunate that neither Florida or Michigan will hold an early primary, as we have both rated as below-average states for her. Michigan has a fairly robust track record of preferring moderate Republicans, both in elections to the Congress and in Republican primaries, where the electorate is pushed to the left by the presence of a very engaged set of independent voters in the open primary. Plus, there may once again be the Romney factor to contend with. Florida’s Republican voters, meanwhile, are relatively urban and reasonably well-educated, and my hunch is that Palin will not play well with groups like Cuban and non-Cuban Hispanics and Jewish voters who collectively make up about 15 percent of the state’s Republican primary electorate.
So in short, and in “Palin-speak”: Palin “would not be as so blessed as to have a successful run in the great State of Florida. Michigan also too.”
That’s not to say that everyone in Florida doesn’t like Palin. At least one resident does. That would be Florida’s very own “Man-Palin” candidate running for the U.S. Senate, one Marco Rubio. Not only is he a big fan, but he has a lot of striking similarities to Palin. He shares a similar mindset, sounds at times like he shares the same education level, and Palin’s got nothing on him when it comes to the recitation of robotic talking points. Every time Rubio pops up and speaks, he says the same thing: “TAX CUTS!” He’s a virtual game of tax cut whack-a-mole! He’s also the King of the Tea Party in Florida, another plus, and it’s rumored that Palin will be campaigning for Rubio.
So before Sarah crosses Florida off her palm altogether, let me be the first to extend an invitation to come on down and campaign her little heart out for a kindred spirit and brother Tea Bagger Marco Rubio!